Impacts of Tariffs on Freight Pricing
Last updated on March 18, 2025. The contents herein are neither for nor against tariffs. This is not intended to be a political statement and should not be interpreted as such. The following statements are made to inform you of what the data is showing in regard to the Tariffs, and anticipation thereof are affecting the freight markets.
Key Takeaways:
- Freight rates coming out of Canada saw a 25% increase over a 1-month period
- Freight rates coming out of Canada are coming back to normal levels
- Intra-Canada has seen some volatility but not as much as cross-border.
- The Southern states aren’t showing any indication of variability beyond normal seasonal/cyclical patterns.
The Northern Border
By looking at all of the freight coming out of Canada’s 5 border territories (BC, AB, SK, MB, ON) you see a clear picture of disruption occurring. Canada has experienced consistent freight for the past couple of years with much of their freight staying within a tight price band through time. However, in the week of Feb 24th to Mar 2nd we saw the highest price increase across all Canada Van freight that we have seen in 2 years. It rose 25% in a 2 month span. It is fair to assume that this coincides with the increasing tariff tensions.
Over the past week, prices dropped by 13%. It seems as though a glut of freight was moved in advance of tariffs being placed on the market, and a small-scale panic took place.
As one would expect, this was primarily a spot-driven price surge. Contracts were minimally affected by the volatility here. Now the spot prices are dropping back in line with normal market behavior.
The Southern Border
Taking a look down south at the southern border states, we find that over the past month, there has been no major identifiable aberration from the standard cycle that these states take as a whole. In analyzing these states, we looked at CA, AZ, NM, and TX in aggregate as well as individually.
On aggregate, these states follow a fairly standard cyclical pattern dictated by produce season. They heat up into the spring and summer and cool off into the winter with another quick heating period around Christmas. We are seeing the same thing as the previous two years, happening this year.
You can see in the image below that the Christmas season this year had a much larger impact than the year before but as we look at the current year, we are right back at the normal pattern of freight rates that we were at last year.
Flatbed has followed its own cycle which doesn't have any noticeable changes in border states, with the notable exception of the Laredo, TX market.
The data presented above can be found in the Greenscreens Illuminate Product. Click here to learn more.
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